Now, the Greek problem is affects the nerves of the world. If you also want to know exactly what will happen in the coming days, Greece at 8 o ‘clock the following simple and crucial facts, you cannot not know.
1. The Greek problem can’t be quick and simple solution. Super unstable, unbalanced situation completely may last a long time. Four centuries, Greece is part of the Ottoman empire. Now the feud entanglement with the rest of Europe is absolutely won’t be the last time they play the role of trouble.
2. The Greek hands there are quite a few CARDS to play. Strike a compromise and there is no doubt that sooner or later, at least temporarily put an end to the possibility of Greece leaving the euro zone.
As I pointed out four months ago, no matter from the political and economic level, as long as Greece in the euro zone after less than out of trouble is caused, they would not be abandoned by the single currency. Now, for the euro, apparently left Greece is more cost-effective. Greece now all act in collusion with, whether it is with Russia’s vladimir putin to eye, or incite Greece left will lead to worry about the “house of CARDS collapse of the euro, obviously is pushing the euro zone’s fear of Greece to leave.
3. Capital flight speed of the Greek banking system has now reached the scale of 1 billion euros a day, have been transferred overseas, some simply is locked into the private safe, and in any case, these are actually constitutes the debt of the European central bank (microblogging), once the situation worse, you need to by the taxpayers to afford all over Europe. The European central bank is an unelected, composed of technical experts, they could not have their own independent and Greek decoupling, declared that the country’s Banks insolvent. The Greek government itself is not much willingness to capital controls (though could quickly forced to take), withdraw because of the euro itself is a powerful, bargaining tool with creditors, and once out of the euro zone, the money can also help them more smoothly to return to the drachma
4. The IMF are unlikely to get their money back on time. In fact, two years ago, has evaluated the IMF themselves, think they provide loans to Greece’s extraordinary 2010 is based on overly optimistic judgment, overestimated the country’s debt bearing force and judgment, not to mention also violating the principle of organization itself. American taxpayers will therefore lose out. This means that, at least a few years, we have difficult to expect that parliament voted in favor of the international monetary fund management, approve their reform initiatives.
5. German chancellor Angela merkel will be a big loser. She must on the one hand, to ensure the integrity of the euro zone, on the one hand, and let the germans to accept the concept of European integration, but also have to ensure that the interests of the German taxpayers don’t damage, makes the euro zone doesn’t become a wealth transfer union… This is a mission impossible. Her greatest enemy is probably not from the outside, but from within his coalition government of social Democrats – though there may be less flat, but the latter would be denounced her, all the unpleasant results would blame her. Because the debt crisis in Greece and humiliation, Angela merkel, it might be a little immoral, but as long as this will help the social Democrats win the 2017 election, they won’t have any scruples.
6. Died in December last year before the bundesbank Bohr was right, he may aid in 2010 shortly before once said, in fact this is the Greek decided to help the rich, as well as French and German Banks. At that time, Germany’s central bank also in publicly accused the European central bank to buy Greek and other peripheral bonds, but the tone is very low, never any real impact on the action. But now, we are destined to from Germany and other creditor countries tax people heard loud and clear voice more and more, because they will begin to review everything.
7. The Greek finance minister lu, completely ignore the rules of the game, not to play, but it also reflects the amazing stories and considerable skill. Originally, the creditor is that debtor grovel, but the result is surprising him, tile lu method, used to be an academic expert, opposed to aid in 2010, immediately after taking office announced that his country has lost its solvency. The battle of Greece would be a tragedy to anyone, and fox also called enough enemies for himself. Only, he is likely to be history proved to be the winner.
8. No matter what the end result is, will be toppled dominoes. If the two sides reach a compromise (likely), giving Greece more favorable meet debt, so such as Italy and Spain is also the periphery of Greece’s creditors, its financial status will be subject to further weaken. If creditors forced Greece to endure more pain, so they will continue to be difficult to repay the debt, the arguments will continue. If Greece eventually have to leave the euro zone, no matter they left is a decent or indecent, will make this originally considered impossible broken system have a significant rift, and long-term perspective, in other countries is almost inevitable. Because of this, at least for now, the euro zone must also try to keep Greece, I’m afraid.